Developing countries are already facing the negative effects of the phosphorus challenge. As prices of raw phosphorus rise, access to fertilizers becomes increasingly difficult and eventually causes soil degradation. The developing world is the first victim of shortage and will be hit hardest.
For European countries, several factors already pose a serious threat for the access to raw phosphorus. Political unrest and climate change in phosphorus mining countries exert pressure on price and export security in any scenario. In the end, exhaustion of phosphorus and consequently the shortage of food will lead to political turmoil, from strikes and demonstrations to migration and war.